Simply put, bull markets
are movements in the stock market in which prices are rising and the
consensus is that prices will continue moving upward. During this
time, economic production is strong, jobs are plentiful and inflation
is low. Bear markets are the opposite-- stock prices are falling,
and the view is that they will continue falling. The economy will
slow down, coupled with a rise in unemployment and inflation. In either
scenario, people invest as though the trend will continue. Investors
who think and act as though the market will continue to rise are bullish,
while those who think it will keep falling are bearish.
The basics of bull and bear markets will be reviewed in this tutorial. Specifically we will cover the following:
WHAT DRIVES BULL AND BEAR MARKETS?
What causes bull and bear markets? They are partly a result of the supply and demand for securities. Investor psychology, government involvement in the economy and changes in economic activity also drive the market up or down. These forces combine to make investors bid higher or lower prices for stocks.
To qualify as a bull or bear market, a market must have been moving in its current direction (by about 20% of its value) for a sustained period. Small, short-term movements lasting days do not qualify; they may only indicate corrections or short-lived movements. Bull and bear markets signify long movements of significant proportion.
There are several well-known bulls and bears in American history. The longest-lived bull market in U.S. history is the one that began about 1991 and is still climbing. Other major bulls occurred in the 1920's, the late 1960's and the mid-1980's. However, they all ended in recessions or market crashes.
The best-known bear market in the U.S. was, of course, the Great Depression. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost roughly 90 percent of its value during the first three years of this period. There were also numerous others throughout the twentieth century, including those of 1973-74 and 1981-82.
PREDICTING BULL AND BEAR MARKETS
Investors turn to
theories and complex calculations to try to figure out in advance
when the market will scream upward or tumble downward. In reality,
however, no perfect indicator has been found.
In their attempts to predict the market, economists use technical
analysis. Technical analysis is the use of market data to analyze
individual stocks and the market as a whole. It is based on the
ideas that supply and demand determine stock prices and that prices,
in turn, also reflect the moods of investors. One tool commonly
used in technical analysis is the advance-decline line, which measures
the difference between the number of stocks advancing in price and
the number declining in price. Each day a net advance is determined
by subtracting total declines from total advances. This total, when
taken over time, comprises the advance-decline line, which analysts
use to forecast market trends.
Generally, the A/D line moves up or down with the Dow. However,
economists have noted that when the line declines while the Dow
is moving upward, it indicates that the market is probably going
to change direction and decline as well.
INVESTING
DURING BULL MARKETS
A key to successful
investing during a bull market is to take advantage of the rising
prices. For most, this means buying securities early, watching them
rise in value and then selling them when they reach a high. However,
as simple as it sounds, this practice involves timing the market.
Since no one knows exactly when the market will begin its climb or
reach its peak, virtually no one can time the market perfectly. Investors
often attempt to buy securities as they demonstrate a strong and steady
rise and sell them as the market begins a strong move downward.
Portfolios with larger percentages of stocks can work well when
the market is moving upward. Investors who believe in watching the
market will buy and sell accordingly to change their portfolios.
Speculators and risk-takers can fare relatively well in bull markets.
They believe they can make profits from rising prices, so they buy
stocks, options, futures and currencies they believe will gain value.
Growth is what most bull investors seek.
The opposite of all this is true when the market moves downward.
INVESTING
DURING BEAR MARKETS
Successful investing
in bear markets can involve many different strategies. Some investors
try to secure their assets in less volatile securities such as fixed-income
bonds or money market securities. Others wait for the downward trend
of prices to subside. When it does, they begin buying. Still others
seek to take advantage of the falling prices.
When the market goes down, portfolios with a greater percentage
of bonds and cash fare well because their returns are fixed. Many
financial advisors emphasize the value of fixed income and cash
equivalent investments during market downturns.
Another strategy is to simply wait for the downward prices to
reverse themselves. Investors who wish to remain invested in stocks
may seek out companies in industries that perform well in both bull
and bear markets -- shares in these companies are called defensive
stocks. The food industry, utilities, debt collection and telecommunications
are popular defensive stocks. However, there is no guarantee that
a defensive stock will perform well during any market period.
Finally, some investors attempt to exploit profits from the downward
price movements. One method is to sell at the beginning of a downward
turn, when prices are still high. Proponents of this strategy wait
for prices to bottom out before reinvesting in the market. However,
as simple as it sounds, this process involves the nearly impossible
task of timing the market. Another, more complicated way to attempt
to profit from falling prices is called selling short.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
There are many investment
methods that seasoned investment professionals use to take advantage
of opportunities during bull or bear markets.
Understanding well-founded strategies will help you to improve
your chances for superior performance in either market environment.
However, there is no surefire way to always succeed. The best weapon
you can employ is education. To begin your educational journey, you
can refer to the specific tutorials on each of the bolded terms above.
Do your homework!
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